Hi Mr. Moss,
Enjoy reading your gardening newsletters. I'm not sure when you wrote your article on "Spring Weather in Winter" as it gave the impression that you're not getting winter weather in Chicago. Being a meteorologist, I know that you've had some subzero temps and snow this winter, and Rockford, Illinois and Madison, Wisconsin, have set new all-time snowfall records and the winter isn't even over! I realize that you have been slightly warmer than normal, but if you look at the graphs from the National Weather Service you will see that overall temperature trends are following closely normal ranges with the usual peaks (warm) and valleys (cold): http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=ORD_cliplots
I know it's popular "PR" to jump on the global warming bandwagon, but the climate has never stayed steady and never will. Earth has had Ice Ages and times when dinosaurs roamed in a much warmer global climate. This current warming trend is just part of the normal climatic flux, and in time we will likely see a cooling trend. Man may be contributing to some of this most current warming, but I feel this is only a small part and that volcanoes and solar radiation play a much greater role.
So I think we can all sleep well at night and enjoy the current climatic warming, because just like everything else in nature, there is a natural balance that can be seen in the past, and that will occur in the future.
Larry Mack
P.S. Don't put away your heavy coat just yet.
William Moss responds:
Thanks for the comments, Larry. I appreciate the dialogue. Sometimes you gamble and lose. I had to turn in that article weeks early and made projections based on the previous two years and a late December warm spell. In the words of Homer Simpson, "DOH!"
Since then we have had a frigid and snowy winter. Although the balance has been cold, there are warm thaws (40+) about every couple of weeks. So I'm not completely off, just not totally accurate. I'm sure, as a meterologist, you understand how that can happen.
As for the larger picture, I don't want to be an alarmist. I am simply raising questions based on current trends. And not only in meteorology. I am also interested in the trends and shifts within horticulture and ecology. While we may be within the normal range of temperatures, we are well out of bounds when it comes to bloom time, migratory habits, etc. Some examples include may apples blooming in April, geese choosing not to migrate, new insects and birds appearing in the Arctic, and old-time gardeners telling me that the iris and peaches bloom weeks earlier than they used to.
I realize there may be some natural causes to these anomalies. However, I suspect that man has made the most difference, especially with deforestation. And while these changes may be cyclical and normal on a geologic time scale, on our time scale they are dramatic and linear. So to not address the issue because the glaciers will be back in ten thousand years is way too cosmic for me.
Thanks again,
William Moss
P.S. Not only did I pull out my heavy coat, I also had to find my long johns!
