Viewing post #1291874 by yadah_tyger

You are viewing a single post made by yadah_tyger in the thread called Hurricane Matthew.
Image
Oct 6, 2016 4:32 AM CST
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Composter Region: Missouri Plays in the sandbox Enjoys or suffers cold winters
Matthew looks to be strengthening. This is from the NHC;

" The satellite presentation of Matthew has improved markedly
overnight with eye reappearing and warming within the past couple
of hours. The eye is also embedded within a very symmetric
central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70c. An Air
Force reconnaissance hurricane hunter that just flew through the
center reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 132 kt, SFMR
winds around 103 kt, and a pressure of 944 mb, which is
down about 18 mb from last evening. Using a blend of the
flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity is set at
110 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
strengthening today and Matthew is expected to become an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane while it moves over the northwestern
Bahamas and approaches the East Coast of Florida. After 24 hours,
land interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the
period increasing shear should cause a more rapid decrease in
winds. The NHC forecast is above the most of guidance during the
first 24 hours due to the recent increase in organization, but is
close to the consensus thereafter.
Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Matthew is moving
northwestward or 320/10 kt. Matthew is expected to move around
the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to
gradually retreat eastward during the next day or two. This
pattern should steer Matthew northwestward over the northwestern
Bahamas today, then north-northwestward very near the East Coast
of Florida late today through Friday night. The models are tightly
clustered through 48 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus
of the GFS and ECMWF models through that time. After 48 hours, the
hurricane should turn northeastward as a broad trough approaches
the Great Lakes region. The trough is expected to pass north of
Matthew in about 72 hours, which is expected to cause the cyclone to
turn eastward, then southeastward late in the forecast period.
There is still significant spread in the long-range guidance so
there is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track
prediction.
Key messages:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the East
Coast of Florida tonight.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida and
Georgia. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in northeast
Georgia and South Carolina.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern
North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center
of Matthew remains offshore.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia."

Looks like it will be a Cat 4 storm while along the coast of Florida. This is a link that shows the size and strength of the wind field. For those in the southeast coast, keep an eye on this;

https://www.wunderground.com/h...


Here's the bottom line. Have an exit plan. When they say leave, just leave. Stay safe.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt

« Return to the thread "Hurricane Matthew"
« Return to Irises forum
« Return to the Garden.org homepage

Member Login:

( No account? Join now! )

Today's site banner is by Zoia and is called "Volunteer"

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.