Sandbox forum: Coronavirus Info Central (COVID19 Discussion)

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Name: Cal McGaugh
Escondido, California (Zone 10b)
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EscondidoCal
Mar 9, 2020 1:49 AM CST
The corona virus (aka COVID-19) has spread world wide, and is effectively
a pandemic even if the World Health Organization hasn't labelled it yet.

I hope this thread will help to calm fears & help us make the best out of the situation.
Let's use common sense, take reasonable precautions, and help each other through it,
since we're more or less all in the same boat (forgive the analogy Rolling my eyes. )

There are probably several of us who already have it, gotten over it, or knows someone who
has, and I hope you will share your story with us.

No doubt there are several doctors, nurses, health care professionals among us as well that
can lend their advice & experience.

I only ask we keep it apolitical without recriminations or rancor. I believe we will come out of it
better prepared, and united in purpose. Thumbs up

Here is an interactive map that tracks the stats for each country (put up by Johns Hopkins)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis...
which is a useful tool to help plan, and keep us informed without the alarmist reporting I've
seen everyday, which has only served to increase the level of fear, instead lowering it.

dave said:I've been monitoring the covid-19 situation with some concern. I would say the sandbox is a fine place for this kind of thread, and would be welcomed by many members.

P.S. I've been subscribed to Dr. John Campbell's youtube video and I watch his daily updates every single day. Such a great and helpful voice of reason! If you haven't seen them, you owe it to yourself to check it out!
https://www.youtube.com/user/C...


Please bare in mind, this is like a bad flu season, not the Plague.
We need to keep it in perspective, and not panic.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself. -Franklin D. Roosevelt


And keep gardening! Thumbs up
Learn & create something every day.
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jmorth
Mar 9, 2020 2:12 AM CST
Good advise, and good quote.
Nothing that's been done can ever be changed.
North Central Massachusetts (N (Zone 5b)
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joannakat
Mar 9, 2020 2:43 AM CST
Can't garden yet--the ground is still somewhat frozen, AND, I seriously hurt my knee. But I do appreciate this thread! Thumbs up
AKA Joey.
Name: Joshua
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (Zone 10b)
Köppen Climate Zone Cfb
Region: Australia Bookworm Cat Lover Lilies Orchids Irises
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Australis
Mar 9, 2020 3:16 AM CST

Plants Admin

The initial comment I would like to add is that it is important at this time that people do not panic. The best outcome is if everyone is able to calmly do their bit to slow the spread of the virus so that healthcare systems and supply chains are not overwhelmed.

The time for containment is long past; the game is now to control the spread and slow it as much as possible.

Practicing some basic hygiene steps like:

- thoroughly washing your hands (20 seconds minimum)
- coughing/sneezing into the crook of your arm
- avoiding touching your face whenever possible
- minimising direct physical contact with other people (i.e. wave, tip your hat or bow as a greeting instead of shaking hands)

will help to slow the spread.

Additional suggestions are to buy a little bit more than usual on your regular shopping trips. Obviously, please be responsible and don't buy out the entire stock of toilet paper, but it is a good idea to try to reduce your number of shopping trips and exposure to large crowds. If you can shop fortnightly instead of weekly, that will aid in slowing the spread.

Supply chains will slowly be affected, but the impact on the supply of most products can be managed by shopping responsibly and not triggering panic buyouts. Additionally, the more that the virus can be slowed, the less supply chains will be disrupted.

I would recommend that people have 2 to 4 weeks' worth of supplies on hand in case they are required to self-quarantine. Months' worth of supplies just risks wastage as well as depriving others who might need the supplies as well. It is also worth noting that it is generally not helpful to buy up masks, as they are ineffective unless correctly fitted and are of far more help to medical staff in most instances (exceptions would be for high-risk individuals, such as 70+ or badly compromised immune systems). Most masks are far more effective at preventing sick people from spreading illness than at protecting healthy individuals. Mask manufacturing takes time and if not carefully managed, many national stockpiles will be depleted before the pandemic is over.

For Australia, at least (I assume it would be similar in other countries), anyone who suspects they may have COVID19 is encouraged to call ahead rather than just turning up at the GP clinic or hospital. Many facilities are not equipped to isolate/quarantine suspected cases and by calling ahead, you can be directed to the appropriate location for testing.
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[Last edited by Australis - Mar 9, 2020 3:17 AM (+)]
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Name: Lola
Tasmania
Keeps Sheep Roses Cottage Gardener Garden Photography Birds Farmer
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LolaTasmania
Mar 9, 2020 4:03 AM CST
I have been self-isolating for a week now and won't be going into town again until the 17th when I have an appointment at the hospital. I am supposed to have surgery on the 27th but it will be cancelled if I get any type of sickness. After my appointment on the 17th I will go to the supermarket for supplies then go back into isolation again for ten days. After my operation and 3 night stay in hospital I will need to go back into isolation for at least another month to make sure my lungs have gotten over the anaesthetic. The hospital currently has one case of coronavirus and if they get many more they will cancel all surgeries until possibly next year.

I have enough meat to last a year (5 lambs in the freezer) and I grow vegetables as well so I will be fine. I have a few acres to walk around for exercise and, apart from the meter reader, my partner and I don't expect to see anyone for a while. I have some wool and crochet hooks to keep myself occupied and I ordered some books from Book Depository last week that should get here next week or the week after. My partner has a barn full of projects to keep himself busy.

I am actually enjoying baking bread and getting back to basics on my little farm. I won't be able to do my volunteering job in the village but we didn't have anything major booked in anyway. I will miss out on our monthly village meetings for a little while, but that's ok too.

The toilet paper madness is a bit weird, isn't it? People are buying more than a years supply when they should have just bought a bidet toilet seat instead. I don't have any masks except for ones we use for spraying chemicals. I don't see any need for masks unless I am sick and want to protect others from my germs.

I hope this thread is soon full of helpful tips and advice for getting through this trying time with our spirits undimmed. I am sure we will be a great support network in the coming weeks.
Name: Cal McGaugh
Escondido, California (Zone 10b)
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EscondidoCal
Mar 9, 2020 8:31 AM CST
@Australis & @Lola Tasmania

Well said! Appreciate your calm & rational input.
Great examples. Thumbs up

BTW, would love to see some pics of your farm, Lola. Smiling
Sounds like you're all tucked in & pretty much self reliant.
Yes, we'll no doubt all appreciate TP, and be more conservative
in use.

Thank God it's not intestinal! Sticking tongue out

I hope this thread is soon full of helpful tips and advice for getting through this trying time with our spirits undimmed. I am sure we will be a great support network in the coming weeks.

Hear hear! Thumbs up
Learn & create something every day.
Our Duck Pond The thread "Pool to Natural Pond Conversion" in Ponds and Water Gardening forum
[Last edited by EscondidoCal - Mar 9, 2020 8:34 AM (+)]
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Name: Cal McGaugh
Escondido, California (Zone 10b)
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EscondidoCal
Mar 9, 2020 8:55 AM CST
The NGA is huge and many may not even be aware of the SandBox.

This may be a good time to invite others to check out this thread as well as join NGA.
Gardening is very therapeutic. Thumbs up
Learn & create something every day.
Our Duck Pond The thread "Pool to Natural Pond Conversion" in Ponds and Water Gardening forum
Name: Rj
Just S of the twin cities of M (Zone 4b)
Garden Ideas: Level 1 Plant Identifier Million Pollinator Garden Challenge
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crawgarden
Mar 9, 2020 9:38 AM CST
This is an excellent newsletter put out by Dr Mike Osterholm, infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist. Free signup, no adds, been getting the newsletter for several years.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.
Name: Rj
Just S of the twin cities of M (Zone 4b)
Garden Ideas: Level 1 Plant Identifier Million Pollinator Garden Challenge
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crawgarden
Mar 9, 2020 10:08 PM CST
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news...

COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.

Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

Virus concentrates quickly, sheds efficiently
Led by researchers in Germany, the virologic study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that the novel coronavirus quickly begins producing high viral loads, sheds efficiently, and grows well in the upper respiratory tract (nose, mouth, nasal cavity, and throat).

"Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms," the authors wrote. "These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment."

The nine patients, who were admitted to the same Munich hospital, were studied because they had had close contact with an index case. Cell cultures and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were done on throat swabs and samples of sputum, stool, blood, and urine. Throat swabs showed very high viral shedding during the first week of symptoms.

The findings contrasted starkly with those from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in terms of viral load. "In SARS, it took 7 to 10 days after onset until peak RNA concentrations (of up to 5x105 copies per swab) were reached," the researchers wrote. "In the present study, peak concentrations were reached before day 5, and were more than 1,000 times higher."

Throat swabs were much more sensitive with COVID-19 than with the SARS virus, and the virus was easier to isolate. Seven of the nine patients had upper respiratory infection.

Social distancing to prevent infection
Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, which publishes CIDRAP News, said that the results challenge the World Health Organization's assertion that COVID-19 can be contained.

The findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing, he said. They also challenge the idea that contact with contaminated surfaces is a primary means of spread, Osterholm said.

"Don't forget about hand washing, but at the same time we've got to get people to understand that if you don't want to get infected, you can't be in crowds," he said. "Social distancing is the most effective tool we have right now."

Data generally back 2-week quarantine
The Johns Hopkins study used news reports and press releases to analyze the demographics and dates and times of possible exposure, emergence of symptoms, fever onset, and hospitalization of 181 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection outside Hubei province, China, from Jan 4 to Feb 24.

The researchers estimated the median incubation period at 5.1 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5 to 5.8 days). They found that 97.5% of patients who have symptoms do so within 11.5 days of infection (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days).

After the recommended 14-day quarantine or active monitoring period, "it is highly unlikely that further symptomatic infections would be undetected among high-risk persons," the authors wrote. "However, substantial uncertainty remains in the classification of persons as being at 'high,' 'medium,' or 'low' risk for being symptomatic, and this method does not consider the role of asymptomatic infection."

Understanding how long active monitoring is needed to limit the risk of missing COVID-19 infections is important for health departments faced with limited resources. The results support current proposals for length of quarantine or active monitoring of people who may have been exposed to [COVID-19], "although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases," they wrote.

In a Johns Hopkins news release today, senior author Justin Lessler, PhD, an associate professor in the Bloomberg School's Department of Epidemiology, said, "The current recommendation of 14 days for active monitoring or quarantine is reasonable, although with that period some cases would be missed over the long-term."

Of the 181 patients, 69 (38%) were female, 108 were male (60%), and 4 (2%) were of unknown sex. Median age was 44.5 years. Cases were collected from 24 countries and areas outside mainland China (108 cases) and 25 provinces in mainland China (73 cases).

The researchers noted that publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, which may have a different incubation period than that of mild cases.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.
Name: Cal McGaugh
Escondido, California (Zone 10b)
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EscondidoCal
Mar 9, 2020 11:07 PM CST
Thanks Rj .......very informative article. Thumbs up
"In the present study, peak concentrations were reached before day 5, and were more than 1,000 times higher."

No wonder it spreads so quickly. Blinking
But should also make it easier to detect & earlier, too, once they get enough kits.
Good to know what to expect after getting exposed.

We went to two markets, today, also Home Depot.
Everything appeared to be completely normal.....no long lines, shelves well stocked (though low on TP),
no one wearing masks, though I'm sure it's on everyone's minds.

So far, so good. Smiling Crossing Fingers!

How are things going where you live?? Smiling


Learn & create something every day.
Our Duck Pond The thread "Pool to Natural Pond Conversion" in Ponds and Water Gardening forum
[Last edited by EscondidoCal - Mar 10, 2020 12:36 AM (+)]
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North Central Massachusetts (N (Zone 5b)
Life & gardens: make them beautiful
Million Pollinator Garden Challenge Vermiculture
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joannakat
Mar 9, 2020 11:33 PM CST
So far, my local Market Basket is showing no signs of shortages, no long lines (at least, not longer than usual), and no runs on products such as tissues, TP, etc. Of course, I live where people stock up for the winter so many of us still have large supplies of tissues, paper towels, TP, canned goods and the like. Cold winters, you know...

I'll let you all know if things have changed later this week. I do believe I will stock my freezer with chicken and other freezable things. My freezer's pretty small so no hoarding here. Thumbs up
AKA Joey.
Name: Cheryl
North of Houston TX (Zone 9a)
Region: Texas Greenhouse Plant Identifier Plant Lover: Loves 'em all! Plumerias Ponds
Foliage Fan Enjoys or suffers hot summers Tropicals Garden Ideas: Master Level Garden Sages Million Pollinator Garden Challenge
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ShadyGreenThumb
Mar 10, 2020 12:03 AM CST
Hello from Texas. Thank you for starting this thread. Houston has 12 confirmed cases so far from those who were on a cruise shop overseas and 1 case that was transferred in from a cruise shop How about those cruise ships. Eh?! We always were told how dirty the air systems were on planes. Now I'm rethinking about the air quality on cruises. We cruise a lot. Houston is a very big city, very spread out. We live in the suburbs, 25 miles away from the city.

Houston area stores are running low on hand sanitizers, bleach, and other soaps. People are hoarding water and toilet paper by the pallet full! Costco reports its sales are up.on these items. It's as crowded as Christmas here.

Fortunately, I had a nice long discussion with someone when the first threatsto US soil appeared. He had no official credentials but at the risk of being laughed at and we were ridiculed, we prepared a week before the population went crazy. Hurricane season starts in May. We've just prepped early. And we havent over prepared!

DH and I are happy homebodies (I really do despise shopping!) only leaving for our appointments and happy to be working in the yard since spring and warmer weather is finally here. I wear a mask because the spring pollen is so bad. But secretly, since Im outside my well-filtered house (many air purifiers due to oet allergies), a bit of a safe feeling does exist behind that mask. We take extra Vitamin C daily. And my hands have never been cleaner!

Stay healthy, Everyone!
Life is short, Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Kiss slowly, Love Truly, Laugh
uncontrollably, And never regret anything that made you Smile.
Name: Joshua
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (Zone 10b)
Köppen Climate Zone Cfb
Region: Australia Bookworm Cat Lover Lilies Orchids Irises
Seed Starter Annuals Container Gardener Garden Photography Forum moderator Avid Green Pages Reviewer
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Australis
Mar 10, 2020 2:23 AM CST

Plants Admin

Unfortunately, cruise ships always have been petri dishes for diseases. At least with aircraft you're only on it for up to 20 hours (for the long-haul flights), as opposed to being stuck on a cruise ship for days or weeks. It was inevitable that at least one cruise ship would be caught up in the pandemic.

Australia's case count has almost certainly passed 100 today (it was at 93 last night and there have been additional reported cases today). NSW is going to be first to be seriously affected, as it is now just starting to see a serious uptick in the number of cases.

Discussions of quarantine and shutting down all schools, etc. are starting to occur, which can only be a good thing in order to slow the spread.
Plant Authorities: Catalogue of Life (Species) --- International Cultivar Registration Authorities (Cultivars) --- RHS Orchid Register --- RHS Lilium Register
My Notes: Orchid Genera HTML PDF Excel --- Lilium Traits HTML PDF --- Lilium Species Crosses HTML PDF Excel --- Lilium Species Diagram
The current profile image is that of Iris 'Volcanic Glow'.
Name: Lola
Tasmania
Keeps Sheep Roses Cottage Gardener Garden Photography Birds Farmer
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LolaTasmania
Mar 10, 2020 4:00 AM CST
I wouldn't mind if they experimented by quarantining Tasmania first. Being an island has its advantages.
Name: Kristi
east Texas pineywoods (Zone 8a)
Herbs Region: Texas Vegetable Grower Avid Green Pages Reviewer
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pod
Mar 10, 2020 5:19 AM CST
Thanks for a 'common sense' discussion about COVID19. There is too little of it these days.

I am surprised to see businesses playing on panic already. Many emails from seed companies, solar generators, etc. referencing the virus in connection with staying secure by purchasing their products.

This morning, a credit card company sent an email encouraging using their card from home and included this excerpt
If you've been impacted by COVID-19 and need our support, we're here to help. We will have dedicated assistance available 24/7 - please contact us at the number on the back of your card to find out about "always on" assistance programs that may be available to you, such as credit line increases and collection forbearance.
Not sure why but this aggravates me.

And now I feel guilty about buying disinfectant to clean up behind my pets and toilet paper for me. Grumbling

May common sense prevail.
Believe in yourself even when no one else will. ~ Sasquatch
Name: Lin Vosbury
Sebastian, Florida (Zone 10a)

Region: United States of America Deer Region: Florida Charter ATP Member Million Pollinator Garden Challenge I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database!
Garden Procrastinator Birds Butterflies Bee Lover Hummingbirder Container Gardener
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plantladylin
Mar 10, 2020 9:03 AM CST
Thanks Cal for letting me know about this thread, I'll be following and reading!

I'm not overly concerned about the COVID-19 but I know that many people are quite worried and some may be over reacting but it's always a good idea to be aware and follow precautions when it comes to contracting any type of virus. I read yesterday that Florida has 18 reported cases of the virus, with 2 deaths. Five of the confirmed cases were people who'd traveled to China and two others had been on a Nile River Cruise in Egypt.

My husband and I both just got over common colds. I'm pretty much a homebody anymore and haven't been anywhere in the past couple of months, except the grocery store. My husband rides motorcycles twice a week with a group of his buddies and on every ride, they stop for lunch at different restaurants around Central Florida. He thinks he likely picked up a virus on one of his restaurant stops and brought it home where I contracted it. I'm now once a week going through the entire house and using Clorox Wipes to wipe down every door handle (inside and out, including the screen doors at the front and back of the house), faucets, telephones, light switches, cell phones, remote controls, etc. Neither of us get sick very often and I'm always concerned when I catch something because it seems to progress to a bad case of bronchitis and as I've gotten older, recovery time can be long! Thankfully this time, it was just a minor head cold that didn't knock me for a loop! We were keeping a neighbors dog while they were away last week and I was out walking her one day and my brother in law drove by and asked me if I was feeling better and if I thought I had that "Beer Virus". I was still in a bit of a fog with the head cold and I don't drink and at first I didn't have a clue what he was talking about but later, I remembered that there's a Corona Beer. Rolling on the floor laughing On my walk that day, I stopped to say hello to some new neighbors from Wisconsin who are building a winter home down the road. They were in town to see how progress is going on construction and when I introduced myself, the husband stepped forward and went to shake my hand but I was keeping my distance and took another step back and told them that I was just getting over a cold. He thanked me profusely for not accepting the handshake and said that he really appreciated me letting them know.

I hate to see people panic but I think everyone needs to be vigilant and take precautions to try and stay healthy and not contract any virus, flu, or otherwise. Frequent hand washing and of course not projecting coughs and sneezes are good preventions!




~ I'm an old gal who still loves playing in the dirt!
~ Playing in the dirt is my therapy ... and I'm in therapy a lot!


Name: Rj
Just S of the twin cities of M (Zone 4b)
Garden Ideas: Level 1 Plant Identifier Million Pollinator Garden Challenge
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crawgarden
Mar 10, 2020 9:54 AM CST
On commercial aircraft, the aircraft air is completely changed out every 2-3 minutes, the biggest threat health wise on an aircraft is the people around you.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.
Name: Rj
Just S of the twin cities of M (Zone 4b)
Garden Ideas: Level 1 Plant Identifier Million Pollinator Garden Challenge
Image
crawgarden
Mar 10, 2020 10:27 AM CST
Don't Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 3/9

This online publication has good info and is updated every day.

https://arstechnica.com/scienc...
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.
Name: Lin Vosbury
Sebastian, Florida (Zone 10a)

Region: United States of America Deer Region: Florida Charter ATP Member Million Pollinator Garden Challenge I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database!
Garden Procrastinator Birds Butterflies Bee Lover Hummingbirder Container Gardener
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plantladylin
Mar 10, 2020 10:28 AM CST
crawgarden said:On commercial aircraft, the aircraft air is completely changed out every 2-3 minutes, the biggest threat health wise on an aircraft is the people around you.

I had no idea about the frequent air change on commercial aircraft, I just figured it was all recycled, stale air. Smiling I totally agree that the passengers in airport terminal areas and on the plane, are the greatest health threat!

I always keep disinfecting wipes in my car, my husbands truck and his motorcycle and a package in my tote bag when traveling and I also keep a small bottle of hand sanitizer in my purse. I haven't flown anywhere in a couple of years and although I know airline employees are trying their best to keep aircraft cabins clean and disinfected but they already have so much to do in preparation for a flight and I wouldn't hesitate to wipe down armrests, tray tables, overhead light/call buttons, etc.

~ I'm an old gal who still loves playing in the dirt!
~ Playing in the dirt is my therapy ... and I'm in therapy a lot!


Name: Cal McGaugh
Escondido, California (Zone 10b)
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EscondidoCal
Mar 10, 2020 2:37 PM CST
pod said:...And now I feel guilty about buying disinfectant to clean up behind my pets and toilet paper for me. Grumbling
May common sense prevail.

Sounds like common sense to me. No need to feel guilty unless you bought a year's worth. Rolling my eyes.
BTW, why use disinfectant for your pets? No problem outdoors.
Maybe we should save our seed catalogues in case TP runs out. Whistling
Learn & create something every day.
Our Duck Pond The thread "Pool to Natural Pond Conversion" in Ponds and Water Gardening forum

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