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Mar 15, 2016 12:06 PM CST
Can you post the total number of tickets sold and the total number of members entering the raffle next week? I would like to calculate my chances of winning with only 5 tickets.
Mar 15, 2016 12:07 PM CST
|Thomas, that information is over here. |
The thread "Raffle" in The March 2016 Not-A-Raffle-Raffle!
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Mar 15, 2016 1:05 PM CST
554 total tickets
Based on those numbers, I have 15% chance of winning something with my 5 tickets.
Someone with 34 or more tickets should expect to win something.
Can you provide me with the updated numbers after tickets are no longer being sold?
Mar 15, 2016 1:08 PM CST
|Bear in mind, when a winner is selected, the rest of that particular members tickets are removed from the raffle, each winner can only win one prize each raffle. So if someone that wins the first prize had bought 70 tickets, all 70 of their tickets are removed from the pool. In essence, with each prize pulled, everyone else that has not won has the odds increase in their favor a bit.|
Mar 15, 2016 1:17 PM CST
|Thanks Rob. |
I did take that into consideration when calculating the numbers. The numbers are based on the average number of tickets(6.2) being removed each time a winner is chosen.
Mar 15, 2016 8:31 PM CST
|Gah! Statistics... my personal Waterloo. I'm excited, though, as I figured my chances of winning with just a few tickets would be more like 1.5% or less! :-)|
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Mar 15, 2016 8:32 PM CST
|Whatever the chances are, it has to be much better than the Powerball lottery! |
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Mar 15, 2016 10:23 PM CST
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Mar 16, 2016 6:26 AM CST
|And much more fun |
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Mar 16, 2016 7:37 AM CST
|I am banking on my one ticket to win me big. If not, oh well. I will save up my acorns for the next raffle. Wonder what my chances are? If I do win, that will make it all the sweeter!|
Mar 16, 2016 8:10 AM CST
|I have own in the past, therefore must I calculate that I will not win again?|
Of course not, each raffle is a new spin of the wheel.
Mar 16, 2016 8:45 AM CST
|Reid - buy another ticket on me|
Mar 16, 2016 9:08 AM CST
|Just remember, though, all it takes is one. I had very few tickets in the (big, very popular) NARR I won in, but I threw a LOT of tickets into the last NARR and didn't win anything. Chances of winning stats are useful, but in the end, they just represent the odds, not the actuality. Considering these tickets are 'free' (granted, they are worth time invested, usually), there isn't much lost for a non-win, which makes it easier, cognitively, to spend those acorns.|
Mar 16, 2016 10:14 AM CST
|This is very true. I usually buy a good few tickets but have only won once.|