Ask a Question forum: I think the frost risk description on this page is not correct?

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Mar 21, 2017 11:24 AM CST
The page says "For spring, there is an 80% chance that you will be past the danger of a hard 24° freeze on February 19, but ... "

I think it should read something like "For spring, there is an 80% chance that you will _have_ a danger of a hard 24° freeze on _or after_ Feb 19 ... "

Can you please confirm this for me?
Name: Dave Whitinger
Jacksonville, Texas (Zone 8b)
Region: Texas Million Pollinator Garden Challenge Charter ATP Member I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Permaculture Raises cows
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Mar 21, 2017 2:09 PM CST Admin

The wording is correct.

You are mostly past the danger of a 24° freeze on February 19th. There's only a 20% chance of that kind of freeze after that date.
Name: Elaine
Sarasota, Fl
The one constant in life is change
Cat Lover Master Gardener: Florida Tropicals Multi-Region Gardener Vegetable Grower Region: Florida
Herbs Orchids Birds Garden Ideas: Level 2 Garden Sages Celebrating Gardening: 2015
Mar 21, 2017 4:38 PM CST
May I add that the "but" is the significant word there. You can plan your garden, or starting transplants around that guideline BUT it's not a hard and fast rule and you must rely on the specific weather forecast for that particular spring. One spring it might be plenty warm to plant cold-hardy plants out after February 19th, and another spring you could get hit with a big, late freeze such as we had last week here in the eastern US.

I lived in the Intermountain West for 20 years, and we had roses blooming in December some years, shorts weather in February, and snow in June some years.

Btw, could you fill in your profile with your location? It will help a lot with answering questions in the future.

"Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm." –Winston Churchill
Name: Yardenman
Maryland (Zone 7a)
Mar 22, 2017 12:23 AM CST
The percent matters too. I have a page I printed out from the DNR and the dates vary by likely percent of last frost. For me, the average last frost date (a 50% possibility) is about April 15. But a 10% possibility is April 1st and the 90% possibility of no frost is May 1st.

I generally go for the 50% date and add a week except for the plants I can cap or add a Wall O Waters to if the forecast is bad.

There is a reason I grow twice as many tomatoes as I need. Half go out at my best guess and the other half are backups for when Mother Nature throws me a curve ball. LOL!
[Last edited by Yardenman - Mar 22, 2017 12:26 AM (+)]
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