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The March 2016 Not-A-Raffle-Raffle!

By dave
March 11, 2016

Finally, the first raffle of the year! We have lots of prizes lined up, so come on in and take a look!

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Name: Thomas
Vista, CA (Zone 10a)
Permaculture Region: California
thomas
Mar 15, 2016 12:06 PM CST
Dave,
Can you post the total number of tickets sold and the total number of members entering the raffle next week? I would like to calculate my chances of winning with only 5 tickets.
Name: Debra
Garland, TX (NE Dallas suburb) (Zone 8a)
Service dogs: Angels with paws.
Dragonflies Dog Lover I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Garden Photography Bee Lover Plays in the sandbox
Butterflies Region: Texas I sent a postcard to Randy! Charter ATP Member Annuals Garden Sages
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lovemyhouse
Mar 15, 2016 12:07 PM CST
Thomas, that information is over here. Smiling
The thread "Raffle" in The March 2016 Not-A-Raffle-Raffle!
If you don't ask, the answer is always 'no.'
Name: Thomas
Vista, CA (Zone 10a)
Permaculture Region: California
thomas
Mar 15, 2016 1:05 PM CST
Thanks.

554 total tickets
90 members
15 prizes
Based on those numbers, I have 15% chance of winning something with my 5 tickets.

Someone with 34 or more tickets should expect to win something.

Dave,
Can you provide me with the updated numbers after tickets are no longer being sold?
Name: Rob Duval
Mason, New Hampshire (Zone 5b)
Region: New Hampshire Vegetable Grower Daylilies Celebrating Gardening: 2015 Garden Ideas: Level 1 Tomato Heads
Annuals Hostas Lover of wildlife (Black bear badge) Spiders! Dog Lover Region: Northeast US
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robertduval14
Mar 15, 2016 1:08 PM CST

Plants Admin

Bear in mind, when a winner is selected, the rest of that particular members tickets are removed from the raffle, each winner can only win one prize each raffle. So if someone that wins the first prize had bought 70 tickets, all 70 of their tickets are removed from the pool. In essence, with each prize pulled, everyone else that has not won has the odds increase in their favor a bit.
Name: Thomas
Vista, CA (Zone 10a)
Permaculture Region: California
thomas
Mar 15, 2016 1:17 PM CST
Thanks Rob.
I did take that into consideration when calculating the numbers. The numbers are based on the average number of tickets(6.2) being removed each time a winner is chosen.
[Last edited by thomas - Mar 15, 2016 1:32 PM (+)]
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Name: Critter (Jill)
MD (Zone 6b)
We're all learners, doers, teachers
Charter ATP Member Region: Maryland Bulbs Amaryllis Tropicals Cottage Gardener
Critters Allowed Birds Butterflies Hummingbirder Lover of wildlife (Black bear badge) Bee Lover
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critterologist
Mar 15, 2016 8:31 PM CST
Gah! Statistics... my personal Waterloo. I'm excited, though, as I figured my chances of winning with just a few tickets would be more like 1.5% or less! :-)



I'm learning to dance in the rain. Thank you, Sally & Chris.
Name: Sandy B.
Ford River, Michigan UP (Zone 4b)
(Zone 4b-maybe 5a)
Charter ATP Member Celebrating Gardening: 2015 I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! I helped beta test the first seed swap Region: United States of America Region: Michigan
Seed Starter Vegetable Grower Birds Butterflies Dog Lover Cat Lover
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Weedwhacker
Mar 15, 2016 8:32 PM CST
Whatever the chances are, it has to be much better than the Powerball lottery! Hilarious!
"Blessed is he who has learned to laugh at himself, for he shall never cease to be entertained."
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Name: Becky
Sebastian, Florida (Zone 10a)
Celebrating Gardening: 2015 Daylilies Hummingbirder Butterflies Seed Starter Container Gardener
Charter ATP Member I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Garden Ideas: Master Level Lover of wildlife (Black bear badge) Birds Ponds
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beckygardener
Mar 15, 2016 10:23 PM CST
Hilarious! Hilarious! Hilarious! Hilarious!
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters, compared to what lies within us.
Garden Rooms and Becky's Budget Garden
Name: Ronnie
Southeastern PA (Zone 6b)
Morning Glories Garden Photography Region: Pennsylvania Charter ATP Member Orchids Dragonflies
I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Photo Contest Winner: 2015 Garden Ideas: Level 1 I helped beta test the first seed swap Bookworm Bee Lover
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luvsgrtdanes
Mar 16, 2016 6:26 AM CST
And much more fun nodding
It happens in a flash, but the memory of it last forever. It can not be borrowed or stolen, and it is of no earthly good until it is given away. So if in your hurry you meet someone who is too weary to smile, leave him one of yours, for no one needs a smile quite as much as he who has none to give...

Name: Reid
North Branch, MN (Zone 4b)
Garden Ideas: Master Level Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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Anderwood
Mar 16, 2016 7:37 AM CST
I am banking on my one ticket to win me big. If not, oh well. I will save up my acorns for the next raffle. Wonder what my chances are? If I do win, that will make it all the sweeter!
Name: Gerry Donahue
Pleasant Lake, IN (Zone 5b)
Hostas Garden Ideas: Master Level
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profesora
Mar 16, 2016 8:10 AM CST
I have own in the past, therefore must I calculate that I will not win again?
Of course not, each raffle is a new spin of the wheel.
Name: Hetty
Sunny Naples, Florida (Zone 10a)
Plumerias Photo Contest Winner: 2015 Charter ATP Member I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Garden Ideas: Master Level Plant Database Moderator
Forum moderator Region: Florida Cat Lover Garden Sages Cactus and Succulents Tropicals
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Dutchlady1
Mar 16, 2016 8:45 AM CST
Reid - buy another ticket on me Smiling
Name: Dnd
SE Michigan (Zone 6a)
Dog Lover Daylilies Organic Gardener Houseplants Celebrating Gardening: 2015 Garden Ideas: Level 1
I helped beta test the first seed swap
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DogsNDaylilies
Mar 16, 2016 9:08 AM CST
Just remember, though, all it takes is one. I had very few tickets in the (big, very popular) NARR I won in, but I threw a LOT of tickets into the last NARR and didn't win anything. Chances of winning stats are useful, but in the end, they just represent the odds, not the actuality. Considering these tickets are 'free' (granted, they are worth time invested, usually), there isn't much lost for a non-win, which makes it easier, cognitively, to spend those acorns.
Name: Hetty
Sunny Naples, Florida (Zone 10a)
Plumerias Photo Contest Winner: 2015 Charter ATP Member I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Garden Ideas: Master Level Plant Database Moderator
Forum moderator Region: Florida Cat Lover Garden Sages Cactus and Succulents Tropicals
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Dutchlady1
Mar 16, 2016 10:14 AM CST
This is very true. I usually buy a good few tickets but have only won once.

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