Steve, I just read your post on another thread about your extreme freeze thaw cycles.
Late freezes are my #1 killer of roses. I am certain that is what is happening to you. They break dormancy too early and then have no defense to the cold in those late freezes.
One year I lost 50 out of 52 roses. I was so depressed I sold that house. That was just the final sign that things weren't right.
Wasn't until a few years later that someone explained the effects of the freeze/thaw cycle to me.