I've been through your frustrations, Brian. You're right, there isn't much real evidence that can be found on the web. I was given a huge batch of Cardiocrinum cathayanum seed, mainly because most of the species seed has purportedly very low viability.
In spring of 2011, I planted about one fourth of the seed in two pots, and the rest in a ziplock bag with vermiculite. All receive an initial warm stage for a month at room temp. (There is some speculation that seed afterripening is needed.) Then the pots went outside, baggie stayed inside. Pots stayed out through the winter, and the baggie went into the fridge about Sept 1, came out in Feb. Back into fridge in mid May and out again in early July. Still nothing happening with the baggie seeds.
The potted ones began sprouting on March 22, 2012. (If you remember this weird spring, that would be April 22 in a normal spring.) I estimated about 10% emerged, which is actually very good.
So my recommendation:
--- a month or more warm
--- then cold
--- then warm
--- but all outside.
favorable conditions in baggies kept outside is very difficult in my opinion. I would plant in pots.
Some seeds like most fritillaria need an after ripening (or some kind of conditioning) that is best triggered by successive falling temperature (summer to fall), rather than just a static warm temperature. I am not sure which category cardiocrinum is in. And it could differ between cardiocrinum species, too. While fritillaria are related to cardiocrinum and need the falling temp regime, Lilium does not. My experiment doesn't shed any light on this.
