So you all think the mush that ensues after long term wetness without freezing is due to a purely physical condition? It could be. I don't know.
I've been winter mulching later and later now with climate change. This past season I mulched 2 days before Christmas. The ground is frozen at least several inches, it gets a lot colder here and we don't get reliable snow anymore (none stayed until mid January). If you wanted to, I think you could wait quite a bit longer to winter mulch your mature lily beds.