I looked at so much of that stuff before I finally saw a nest. And once you see one, the others suddenly become obvious. But I think it's one of those things where you really need the visual before you can find them. They're definitely fluffy on top anyway, but if you see one that looks super fluffy, go peel it open. And if it has frass stuck to it, well, you know you're on the right track. Sometimes I open them and the caterpillar is gone. I always assume it became a butterfly because nothing bad ever happens to caterpillars in my world.
Also, I only tend to see Painted Ladies or American Ladies in the spring when we have Cudweed. It's another one of those weeds I wouldn't bother pulling, not only because it's a host plant, but because it dries up and goes away after a few months. I know Painted Ladies use a wide variety of host plants so maybe they're munching on other things during different times of the year. They also migrate around so it's possible they move northward when it warms up. Their numbers vary quite a bit from year to year but this look to be a good year!