Hi Gabe and
I'm not real knowledgeable about
Sempervivum but I think you might be right and that the problem could be from too much water. From your photo, the plant looks very healthy so I'd think as long as the base of the plant isn't soft and mushy (rotting) it should recover. If you feel the soil it's planted in is too water retentive you could un-pot it and add perlite or something to aid in drainage. Also, be sure the container it's planted in has drainage holes in the bottom.
Our member
@valleylynn grows lovely Sempervivum's so maybe she will be able to offer some tips and advice.