profesora said:I am curious about self pollination. Would you run the numbers?
Thanks
OK.
Keep in mind that this is very much over-simplified and probably too high as estimates (take them with a very large grain of salt).
Diploid.
Each of the eleven pairs of chromosomes will be treated as a unit. Bear in mind that there are probably about 25,000 genes in a daylily and that means approximately 2,000 genes on each chromosome. Each chromosome of a pair will then be different. So if I looked at pair number 1 we would have 1a and 1b. With self-pollination the seedling (again just for chromosome 1) could be 1a/1a or 1b/1b or 1a/1b. There is a complication; the 1a/1b can be produced in two ways so the probabilities for each pattern are not equal at 1/3 each but are 1/4, 1/4 and 1/2. So we have a range of probabilities for the diploid from a low of 1/4,194,304 that is 1/(4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4) to 1/(2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2) which is 1/2,048.
Tetraploid
Now, tetraploids are complex (I'm not sure my calculations are correct). At one extreme it would be 1/(4x4...4x4) but 22 of the fours to 1/(2x2..2x2) but 22 of the twos (1/4,194,304. That would apply when the 44 chromosomes of the tetraploid act as if they are 22 pairs. However, they can also act as 11 quadruplets. In that case (for one chromosome set) there appear to be six patterns that appear only once, twelve patterns that can occur twice and one pattern that can occur six times. If everything is reasonably okay with my calculations that is an extreme range from 1/(36x36...36x36) with eleven thirty-sixes to 1/(6x6...6x6) with eleven sixes or 1/362,797,056.
