Irises forum: Severe Weather Forecast Sites

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Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 4:20 AM CST
Since we are approaching the time of year where weather can get rather nasty, I thought I would post some links where you can get forecasts for your area. The objective is to stay safe and make good decisions if severe weather is headed your way. I know a few of you live in Tornado Alley as I do. So I'll also try to stay on top of events as they are unfolding. If you don't know how to bring up a good local radar and track where storms are going, I will tell you how.

Let's stay safe this Spring.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 4:22 AM CST
Here is a link from NOAA that shows the daily forecasts for severe weather. The darker the color the greater chance for a severe event.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 4:27 AM CST
Here is a site where you can get your local forecasts. The nice thing about Wunderground is you can tap the radar image and expand it right to your house. Just type the name of a city & state you want in the search bar. To see your house, type in your full address. I used this two years ago to watch the Mesoscale systems head right for my house and wipe out just about that entire years new plantings.

https://www.wunderground.com/?MR=1
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
[Last edited by yadah_tyger - Apr 23, 2016 4:28 AM (+)]
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Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 4:32 AM CST
I'l post some other sites later today, like how to find the safest place in your home, what to do if you are in your car, what to do when the sirens go off. I will never recommend chasing. But if you do, I can give you some rules of thumb to folllow.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: Tom
Southern Wisconsin (Zone 5b)
Irises Vegetable Grower Butterflies Region: Wisconsin Keeps Horses Cat Lover
Dog Lover Keeper of Poultry Daylilies Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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tveguy3
Apr 23, 2016 4:51 AM CST
yadah_tyger said:Here is a site where you can get your local forecasts. The nice thing about Wunderground is you can tap the radar image and expand it right to your house. Just type the name of a city & state you want in the search bar. To see your house, type in your full address. I used this two years ago to watch the Mesoscale systems head right for my house and wipe out just about that entire years new plantings.

]https://www.wunderground.com/?MR=1


Interesting site!
I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion. - Alexander the Great
Name: Lucy
Hamilton, MA (Zone 6b)
irises
Charter ATP Member Cottage Gardener Enjoys or suffers cold winters Region: United Kingdom Region: Northeast US Irises
Region: United States of America
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irisarian
Apr 23, 2016 5:26 AM CST
More apt to get hurricanes here than tornados. But strong straight line winds are tough on trees.
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 6:01 AM CST
Here is a link to a NOAA FAQ that is well worth the read. Even if you live in an area where tornados are not.likely, straight line winds can be a significant event.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Safety
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: Bonnie Sojourner
Harris Brake Lake, Arkansas (Zone 7a)
Magnolia zone
Region: United States of America Region: Arkansas Master Gardener: Arkansas Irises Bulbs Seed Starter
Gardens in Buckets Garden Art Plant and/or Seed Trader Moon Gardener Garden Ideas: Master Level Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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grannysgarden
Apr 23, 2016 6:33 AM CST
Great sites, John. If anyone wants tips on hiding, quaking and praying I am good for that info.
I love my garden.... and Jesus, and coffee, and naps.......
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 7:31 AM CST
I forgot to mention, on the Wunderground site, when you key in your city you can access what NWS says about the forecast. The link will be a bit down the page and it's called Scientific Forecast Discussion. It is in 'weathereze' but it doesn't take long to grasp the language. Before you know it, you will be using words like 'negative tilt' , 'vortex', 'caps' and the like.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: Mary Ann
Kentucky
I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Region: United States of America Hostas Hummingbirder Daylilies Birds
Irises Keeps Horses Region: Kentucky Farmer Container Gardener Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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Muddymitts
Apr 23, 2016 7:52 AM CST
Thank you for that information, John. I have gold-starred your posts so that I have quick access when I need it. We don't get many tornadoes here -- we live in a large valley area, flanked by the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Seems like when a strong weather system hits the juncture of those Rivers, it is inclined to ride the north ridge of the Ohio River, and goes up (north) and past us. Thankfully. Of course, that didn't happen for the ice storm of 2009, sadly -- but that was a real oddity.
Thoughts become things -- choose the good ones. ([url=www.tut.com]www.tut.com[/url])
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 23, 2016 8:15 AM CST
You are welcome.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 24, 2016 3:26 AM CST
This forecast is for the Oklahoma City area for Tuesday.

From NWS

"Discussion... increasing boundary layer moisture today will work with a dryline into northwest Oklahoma this afternoon to give a chance for thunderstorms. These features will be coincident with the southern extent of a trough from an Upper Love over the northern plains. However, a capping inversion is expected to limit coverage of storms this afternoon and evening. Shear is sufficient for hail- producing supercells over northern Oklahoma. Weak upper ridging is expected Monday although lower level moisture will be increasing in central and eastern Oklahoma. Some showers or isolate thunder may occur late Monday/early Tuesday east of I-35. Tuesday still looks like the most significant severe weather day of the week. A strong upper low over the central rockies will provide strong divergence and vertical shear for supercell thunderstorms. A dryline will mix east, likely east of the western border counties of Oklahoma, before providing sufficient convergence for thunderstorm initiation. Any inversion is expected to be overcome by increasing synoptic lift by late afternoon somewhere north- south through central or western Oklahoma. Shear increases through the evening which will maintain or increase strength of storms. Very large hail and tornadoes are expected. When this system passes early Wednesday, weak ridging ahead of the next system will give a reprieve. However, the next system may give a prolonged period of storms/rain from late Thursday into the weekend. Moisture will be ample and nearby after the Tuesday system, and lift should be sufficient for good chances or likely rain the end of the week. This system is expected to exit after Saturday. "

The strong instability and a dry line will increase chances of Supercell development.

Stay safe

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
Image
yadah_tyger
Apr 24, 2016 3:31 AM CST
This forecast is for the Dallas/Fort Worth area for Tuesday

From NWS

"The next system is an upper trough which can be seen on satellite deepening along the West Coast. It is prognosticated to become a partially cut-off low near The Four Corners region tomorrow night and Tuesday...before ejecting northeast across the plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. The subsequent Lee rockies surface troughing will generate a narrow pressure gradient across the plains. The resulting gusty return flow will give US 48 to 60 hours of moisture return in advance of the upper level storm. The movement of the upper low into the plains will help force a dry-line east into the western counties of north and central Texas late Tuesday afternoon. The boundary will provide focus for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and early evening hours...in a region where cape is forecast to climb into the 3000-4000 j/kg range. This amount of instability when combined with modest shear will be sufficient for the development of severe storms capable of producing large hail...damaging downburst winds and perhaps a few tornadoes...particularly during the late afternoon and evening when discrete storm Mode is most likely."

You folks in this area also need to keep an eye on current conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Stay safe.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
Image
yadah_tyger
Apr 24, 2016 3:56 AM CST
Our friends at Stout Gardens could be in for a go of it come Tuesday. If I had to take a guess, I think the OKC area could get the brunt of this multi-state event. So you guys know the drill. Keep an eye out for storm development to the SW of the Moore area.

Lord, we pray for our friends in both these areas. We pray you would keep them safe. We pray that you would cause this air mass to become stable without producing damaging storms. We especially pray for our friends at Stout Gardens. We pray you would keep them safe and from harm. We pray you would send angels to protect their business, that none of their plants would come to harm. Lord, even if hail comes close to them, we pray you would cause it to go around their farm harmlessly. Thank you, Lord.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
[Last edited by yadah_tyger - Apr 24, 2016 3:58 AM (+)]
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Name: Mary Ann
Kentucky
I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Region: United States of America Hostas Hummingbirder Daylilies Birds
Irises Keeps Horses Region: Kentucky Farmer Container Gardener Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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Muddymitts
Apr 24, 2016 7:38 AM CST
Amen.
Thoughts become things -- choose the good ones. ([url=www.tut.com]www.tut.com[/url])
Name: Lucy
Hamilton, MA (Zone 6b)
irises
Charter ATP Member Cottage Gardener Enjoys or suffers cold winters Region: United Kingdom Region: Northeast US Irises
Region: United States of America
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irisarian
Apr 24, 2016 12:35 PM CST
very specific. Good organization. I am hoping that there is very little damage to the area.
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 25, 2016 1:43 AM CST
Possible good news for the Norman OK area. The line of strong instability could form more east then earlier forecasts had stated. From NWS;

"Tuesday still appears to be the day with highest potential for numerous severe thunderstorms. Latest trends of virtually all models is to initiate convection farther east than previous forecasts...generally along and east of I-35 and also with later initiation timing. This trend will need to be monitored next few model iterations before wholesale modifications to outlook/forecasts at this time. Majority of Wednesday and Thursday appear storm free before next system approaches and frontal boundary lifts north late Thursday and Friday. Although there is a fair amount of detail differences in the medium range models...Friday appears to be a day to be watched closely...especially across western North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Along with severe storm potential Friday into Saturday...widespread heavy rain will be a concern which could lead to flooding/flash flooding. "

The good in the above forecast is the words "east of I-35" and "later initiation". The later, the better. You want to loose heating from the afternoon sun.

Thank you Lord. Now Lord, cause the air to stabilize. And bless our friends at Stout Gardens. Cause them to have one of the best years ever.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 25, 2016 4:00 AM CST
But the situation for us in the KC area is not looking good. Very heavy rainfall is likely at the least and possible tornadoes at the worst. From NWS;

"A second storm system will impact our forecast area during this
period with the potential for severe storms and a high likelihood of
significant rainfall, owing to the presence of precipitable water
values in the 99th percentile.

As a deep upper low lifts northeast out of the Desert Southwest a
surface low will deepen over the Central High plains. A frontal
boundary, likely the above noted boundary moving into northwest MO
today, extending east from the low and across the southern County Warning Area will lift north on Tuesday while a dryline strengthens from south central
NE through western OK. Afternoon/evening severe weather is expected
along both boundaries. All forms of severe weather will be possible
with this system. "

This would include the Comanche Acres area. The words of note are "precipitable water values in the 99th percentile". That, my friends, is a whole lot of moisture that would be wrung out by a dry line.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
[Last edited by yadah_tyger - Apr 25, 2016 4:05 AM (+)]
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Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Apr 25, 2016 4:34 AM CST
And for the Dallas/Fort Worth area. From NWS;

"Better chances of thunderstorms will occur Tuesday and Tuesday night. The upper low will take on a negative tilt by midday Tuesday then lift northeast from New Mexico into the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface...a dryline will surge east into western counties of north and central Texas. The boundary will provide focus for convective development as strong lift generated by the upper level system arrives. Instability and shear will be sufficient for the formation of supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging downburst winds...along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. Timing of the greatest threat for discrete cells capable of maintaining strong updrafts and producing severe weather will be during the late afternoon and early evening hours...with the location being along and west of the I-35 corridor. Storm motion will initially be northeast...but will become more easterly with time as middle level winds veer. The likelihood of upscale growth into a squall line still exists as activity crosses the I-35 corridor during the evening hours...with damaging winds becoming the biggest severe threat across the eastern half of the region overnight. We will also need to keep an eye on the flash flood threat overnight...as some of the latest guidance hints that the line of convection will become more east-west oriented during the late night hours...leading to a higher possibility of training echoes. "

Again, the focus is the possibility of very heavy rain. The active wording here is "leading to a higher possibility of training echoes". In short, that means some areas could get thunderstorm after thunderstorm.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: Mary Ann
Kentucky
I was one of the first 300 contributors to the plant database! Region: United States of America Hostas Hummingbirder Daylilies Birds
Irises Keeps Horses Region: Kentucky Farmer Container Gardener Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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Muddymitts
Apr 25, 2016 7:53 AM CST
I'm appreciating your weather reports, John. Thumbs up
Thoughts become things -- choose the good ones. ([url=www.tut.com]www.tut.com[/url])

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