For you folks in the DFW area. Here is the latest guidance from NWS;
"The resulting negatively tilted appearance taken on by the upper level system is generally conducive for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms...particularly in the Spring when other parameters associated with convection are more likely to become favorable. One such parameter will be low level convergence...which in this case will be enhanced as a dryline is nudged eastward into western counties of north and central Texas. Another will be instability...which is forecast to be in great supply as cape climbs to near 4000 j/kg in the vicinity of the dryline this afternoon. Shear will be more than sufficient for the development of rotating cells capable of maintaining strong updrafts...which means that large hail will be our most likely severe threat. Damaging downburst winds will also be a good possibility with any storms which becomes severe. Low level shear does not look particularly great for an outbreak of tornadoes...but when combined with such good instability will be enough for a few tornadoes to occur. The highest probabilities for severe thunderstorm development will be early on in the development of storms...or during the 4 to 10 PM time-frame when discrete cells are more likely to occur. Location should initially be west of the Interstate 35/35w corridor near the dry-line. Upscale development into a linear convective Mode is likely late this evening and overnight as storms shift east across the I-35 corridor and continue across the eastern half of the region. Brief heavy rain and localized flooding will be another possible threat overnight...especially if any storms are able to train over the same areas. Activity is expected to end from west to east during the morning hours on Wednesday. "
The key wording here is "Shear will be more than sufficient for the development of rotating cells" which means large hail is possible. But the god news is "Low level shear does not look particularly great for an outbreak of tornadoes". So hail and maybe straight line winds are likely.
Still in all, stay alert, especially late this afternoon and early evening.
Blessings
