Guidance for the KC area just came out of NWS. A little bit of good news;
"Early morning elevated convection will continue to fire south of a stationary frontal boundary draped across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. A Stout eml will continue to support modest instability with further destabilization through the morning hours. Storms early on will be relatively isolated and should remain north of the I-70 corridor until daybreak. Overnight convection has been slow to strengthen given the lack of instability, though should start to see more widespread development in the early to mid morning hours. A larger cluster of storms developing over north central Kansas, where more supportive instability is present, will likely generate a cold pool sufficient enough to steer nearby convection to the southeast. As these elevated storms strengthen after daybreak, some storms may produce large hail until the mid morning. As this activity slides to the southeast through the late morning to early afternoon, there should be a bit of a break in the activity until the late afternoon and early evening hours. The anticipated deep upper low will center across western Kansas while at the surface, a dryline will reside from central Texas up to south central Nebraska. Morning convection may limit instability to a degree, though cloud cover should thin out enough to generate surface based cape values over 2000 jkg by the mid afternoon. More robust convection will fire along the dry line well to the west of the area through the early afternoon. This convection will then slide into eastern Kansas and western Missouri by the late afternoon. Will also need to monitor the potential for convection ahead of the dryline within an area of surface convergence. As the storms over eastern Kansas approach the area, will likely transition to a linear Mode with bowing segments. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, particularly for western Missouri, though a few embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out. "
The key to this forecast is what is happening right now in our area. Thunderstorms are forming to our north and missing us. And the dry line is nearly stationary. This means those storms will stay to our north. For now. The severe outlook for later this afternoon remains. But there is a bit of good news. Again, from NWS;
" As the storms over eastern Kansas approach the area, will likely transition to a linear Mode with bowing segments. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, particularly for western Missouri, though a few embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out."
So, the bottom line, the primary threat will be large hail and wind, but no tornadoes. If you have the time, I'll post the radar site and you can watch what a bowing line of thunderstorms looks like. It's fairly impressive. One thing you can count on when you a get a bowed line of thunderstorms, wind!! If you are in these areas where severe weather is forecast and it is safe to do so, go outside and see if you can spot mammatus clouds. Here's what they look like;
Blessings
