And for the Norman, OK area. This from NWS;
"Discussion... big picture still shows the potential of a significant severe weather day across the area. The primary takeaway is that although there are some uncertainties discussed below... residents of Oklahoma and North Texas should remain alert today for the potential of severe weather and tornadoes and should not focus on the minutia of the more uncertain timing and evolution details of the forecast. On the large scale... the airmass over the area will become very unstable and the primary upper wave is prognosticated to approach western Oklahoma at 00z... well timed for storm development late this afternoon and evening. The instability will definitely support high-end severe storms with very large hail. Severe storm development is likely this afternoon/evening. But the devil is in the details and a number of questions remain about specific evolutions. First is timing. Although timing of the main wave looks reasonable... satellite has shown middle/high clouds developing from El Paso northeast toward Guymon hinting at a feature that does not appear to be resolved by the models. Would really like to see wind profiler data at the old White Sands and Tucumcari profiler sites to see what is happening here. But as clouds develop and satellite can begin estimating middle/upper level winds here...current GOES estimates are 70-85 knots around 300 mb and even 70 knots around 500 mb... much higher than prognosticated...so do not have high confidence that any affect from this apparent enhancement are resolved in any way by the models. This leads to uncertainty about if this will support an earlier initial wave of development and if so... how will that affect the evolution later today. Will not include probability of precipitation too early in this package... but will closely watch evolution. On the other side... with a relatively Stout capping inversion... there is a decent chance that convective development also may be delayed until later as well. Second question is tornado potential. Low-level and deep-layer shear certainly support tornadoes today. But again looking at the details... most forecast hodographs show a veeing/backing/ veering profile with height which is not necessarily conducive to long-lived tornadic storms. But again while it is important to note these uncertainties from a forecast perspective... the big picture remains the same that severe weather is likely and there is a potential for high-end severe storms /especially very large hail/ as well as the potential for tornadoes."
The key paragraph is the last one;
" Second question is tornado potential. Low-level and deep-layer shear certainly support tornadoes today. But again looking at the details... most forecast hodographs show a veeing/backing/ veering profile with height which is not necessarily conducive to long-lived tornadic storms. But again while it is important to note these uncertainties from a forecast perspective... the big picture remains the same that severe weather is likely and there is a potential for high-end severe storms /especially very large hail/ as well as the potential for tornadoes".
Bottom line, this event will be severe in your area. Wind, hail, dangerous lightning. But the bit of good news is the atmosphere will not likely not support long duration tornados, if tornadoes happen. This is good news. But be alert and stay safe.
Blessings
