For those who may be impacted by this storm, I am posting updates from NWS for areas where I know folks live. If you want info for a specific city and state, just post it here.
Durham, NC
"Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... as of 335 am Wednesday... While the latest (00z wednesday) are in generally good agreement, the big swing in the change in course of Matthew on Saturday greatly increases the uncertainty in the forecast this period. What originally appeared to be a heavy rain/strong wind event for central NC, especially the eastern half, has changed to less rainfall and much less wind for most of central NC. Also, the timing has slowed a bit, in part due to the strength of the upper level high preceding ahead of Matthew. Based on the current model guidance, the time frame for the most adverse conditions favor Saturday, rather than Friday night into Saturday. Still, appears that the se third of our forecast region (roughly Rockingham-wilson) will still bare the brunt of the wind and rain though not to the degree that yesterday's model guidance was advertising. Still appears that this region will see appreciable rainfall so have increased pops to low end categorical late Friday night into Saturday. Conversely, have adjusted pops a bit in the NW, capping pops at 50 percent late Friday night into early Saturday. Will leave the wind field as is for now, though, expect adjustments needed based on the next advisory. Thus, the take away from the latest guidance, if it verifies, that the rainfall amounts will likely need to be adjusted down, though the heaviest rainfall still expected across the southeast counties but not to the degree as currently forecast; and that the wind field will likely need to be adjusted downward, though again, the strongest gusts confined to the se counties. Expect additional adjustments in the forecast later today through Thursday. For the latest information on Hurricane Matthew please refer to the National hurricanes's website at
http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/ Extensive cloudiness and periods of showers will inhibit a normal diurnal temp trend. Max temps Friday near 70 NW to the mid 70s se; and 70-75 Saturday. "
Looks like wind and rain forecasts are being cut back. Very good.
Charlotte, NC
"Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... as of 325 am, confidence remains low regarding the potential impacts for the gsp County Warning Area from tropical cyclone Matthew late this week. The global models are in better agreement regarding the timing and magnitude of the trough that will be moving into the eastern conus from the Great Plains early Saturday, and the interaction that the trough will have with Matthew. In a nutshell, the trough will not be deep enough to pick up the cyclone and completely carry it away from the coast, but after the cyclone batters the SC and Georgia coasts throughout Saturday, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) do indicate a rather dramatic eastward turn away from the coast Sat night, after which both models begin to turn the cyclone southeast (!!) along the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge late in the weekend. That's all fantastically interesting, but what does it mean for our area? The ECMWF, which is now the deterministic model that takes the cyclone farther inland (although not by much) squeezes out about an inch of storm total rainfall across Union County, NC, with amounts dropping off dramatically west of there in typical T.C. Fashion. GFS amounts are not even half that. The wetter ec has about half the amount of quantitative precipitation forecast that we are currently advertising in the official forecast. That being said, due to the tight gradient that always exists on the west side of tropical cyclones, a track that proves to be only slightly closer to the coast than either model is currently depicting could make a tremendous difference in how much rain falls across our Piedmont zones. (It's also unrealistic to expect rather coarse global models to accurately depict the magnitude of the rainfall gradient this far ahead of time). In other words, the Piedmont is by no means out of the heavy rainfall Woods yet, but it's looking a little less probable than at this time yesterday. As such, will continue to omit any mention of heavy rain in the severe weather potential statement. Pops however will remain in the likely range along much of the I-77 corridor from Fri evening into early Saturday, diminishing to slight chance by Sat evening. Gusty winds will still be a concern, but magnitudes will depend upon the intensity of the cyclone, and as such it is difficult to pin down speeds at this point. "
The takeaway in this is Matthew is expected to be downgraded to a TS by the time it impacts this area. Also very good.
Do we have any folks on the east coast of Florida??
