Irises forum: Hurricane Matthew

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Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 5, 2016 6:40 AM CST
For those who may be impacted by this storm, I am posting updates from NWS for areas where I know folks live. If you want info for a specific city and state, just post it here.

Durham, NC

"Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... as of 335 am Wednesday... While the latest (00z wednesday) are in generally good agreement, the big swing in the change in course of Matthew on Saturday greatly increases the uncertainty in the forecast this period. What originally appeared to be a heavy rain/strong wind event for central NC, especially the eastern half, has changed to less rainfall and much less wind for most of central NC. Also, the timing has slowed a bit, in part due to the strength of the upper level high preceding ahead of Matthew. Based on the current model guidance, the time frame for the most adverse conditions favor Saturday, rather than Friday night into Saturday. Still, appears that the se third of our forecast region (roughly Rockingham-wilson) will still bare the brunt of the wind and rain though not to the degree that yesterday's model guidance was advertising. Still appears that this region will see appreciable rainfall so have increased pops to low end categorical late Friday night into Saturday. Conversely, have adjusted pops a bit in the NW, capping pops at 50 percent late Friday night into early Saturday. Will leave the wind field as is for now, though, expect adjustments needed based on the next advisory. Thus, the take away from the latest guidance, if it verifies, that the rainfall amounts will likely need to be adjusted down, though the heaviest rainfall still expected across the southeast counties but not to the degree as currently forecast; and that the wind field will likely need to be adjusted downward, though again, the strongest gusts confined to the se counties. Expect additional adjustments in the forecast later today through Thursday. For the latest information on Hurricane Matthew please refer to the National hurricanes's website at http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/ Extensive cloudiness and periods of showers will inhibit a normal diurnal temp trend. Max temps Friday near 70 NW to the mid 70s se; and 70-75 Saturday. "

Looks like wind and rain forecasts are being cut back. Very good.


Charlotte, NC

"Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... as of 325 am, confidence remains low regarding the potential impacts for the gsp County Warning Area from tropical cyclone Matthew late this week. The global models are in better agreement regarding the timing and magnitude of the trough that will be moving into the eastern conus from the Great Plains early Saturday, and the interaction that the trough will have with Matthew. In a nutshell, the trough will not be deep enough to pick up the cyclone and completely carry it away from the coast, but after the cyclone batters the SC and Georgia coasts throughout Saturday, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) do indicate a rather dramatic eastward turn away from the coast Sat night, after which both models begin to turn the cyclone southeast (!!) along the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge late in the weekend. That's all fantastically interesting, but what does it mean for our area? The ECMWF, which is now the deterministic model that takes the cyclone farther inland (although not by much) squeezes out about an inch of storm total rainfall across Union County, NC, with amounts dropping off dramatically west of there in typical T.C. Fashion. GFS amounts are not even half that. The wetter ec has about half the amount of quantitative precipitation forecast that we are currently advertising in the official forecast. That being said, due to the tight gradient that always exists on the west side of tropical cyclones, a track that proves to be only slightly closer to the coast than either model is currently depicting could make a tremendous difference in how much rain falls across our Piedmont zones. (It's also unrealistic to expect rather coarse global models to accurately depict the magnitude of the rainfall gradient this far ahead of time). In other words, the Piedmont is by no means out of the heavy rainfall Woods yet, but it's looking a little less probable than at this time yesterday. As such, will continue to omit any mention of heavy rain in the severe weather potential statement. Pops however will remain in the likely range along much of the I-77 corridor from Fri evening into early Saturday, diminishing to slight chance by Sat evening. Gusty winds will still be a concern, but magnitudes will depend upon the intensity of the cyclone, and as such it is difficult to pin down speeds at this point. "

The takeaway in this is Matthew is expected to be downgraded to a TS by the time it impacts this area. Also very good.


Do we have any folks on the east coast of Florida??
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 5, 2016 6:47 AM CST
These links are for info out of NOAA NHC

This is a projected 5 day track from NOAA;

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurrica...

This shows the current wind field,

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurrica...
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Fort Worth, TX (Zone 8a)
Region: Texas Cat Lover Daylilies Roses Lilies Irises
Plant Lover: Loves 'em all! Sempervivums
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javaMom
Oct 5, 2016 6:56 AM CST
For our friends who live in Florida and East coast of United States, I hope everyone stay safe and sending you my prayers and love...

Region: California
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UndertheSun
Oct 5, 2016 9:46 AM CST
I agree

May you and everyone around you be safe during all of this.
Name: Gabriel/Gabe Rivera
Charlotte, NC (Zone 7b)
German imported, Michigan raised
Region: North Carolina Hostas Enjoys or suffers hot summers Dog Lover Garden Procrastinator Daylilies
Plant and/or Seed Trader Irises Container Gardener Region: United States of America Garden Ideas: Level 1
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Cuzz4short
Oct 5, 2016 10:21 AM CST
After work I have to clean the casa to host some friends, mandatory evacuees from Myrtle Beach, SC.

Really wanted to play outside as always, but for a good cause...
Gimme it and I'll grow it!
[Last edited by Cuzz4short - Oct 5, 2016 1:57 PM (+)]
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Name: Leslie
Durham, NC (Zone 8a)
Region: North Carolina Irises Cat Lover Garden Photography Enjoys or suffers hot summers Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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Lestv
Oct 5, 2016 10:46 AM CST
Yesterday the track was right over us, today it stays off shore. Who knows by tomorrow. The storm has slowed down again as of the 11 advisory. So still three days out for us now. And models have it looping back toward the Bahamas, after which they are uncertain, but it may loop back at NC. Nothing more annoying than a storm that won't go away.

Poor Florida is going to really feel the winds, but at least they are to the left side of the eye wall which is less devastating than the right side.
My road calls me, lures me west, east, south & north; most roads lead men homewards, my road leads me forth. - John Masefield
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 5, 2016 11:28 AM CST
I saw that in the weather models, that once it approaches the Carolinas it may loop around again towards northern Florida. Hurricanes are so strange, they have their own set of dynamics. Andrew and Sandy proved that they can move from east to west with no problem.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: daphne
san diego county, ca (Zone 10a)
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shizen
Oct 5, 2016 1:14 PM CST
my DD lives in jacksonville, and my SIL is supposed to fly out on friday for a conference. i am very concerned.
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 5, 2016 1:58 PM CST
Daphne - Jacksonville will likely get sideswiped my Matthew, meaning the storm will likely be east of the city. Unless the dynamics of this storm change for the worse, the strong winds are still fairly close to the center and diminish sharply as you move out from the center. So a move of 5 or 10 miles to the east would be very good. Also, Jacksonville is pretty far north so the storm will get scrubbed by the coastline as it moves up which would weaken the storm. Just tell your DD to keep vigilant and have an exit plan in place, just in case.

Blessings to you
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: Joshua
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (Zone 10b)
Köppen Climate Zone Cfb
Region: Australia Bookworm Cat Lover Lilies Orchids Seed Starter
Annuals Container Gardener Garden Photography
Australis
Oct 5, 2016 4:41 PM CST
Thinking of all those affected by the storm and hope you stay safe.
Name: Jane H.
Kentucky (Zone 6b)
Irises Birds Region: United States of America Region: Kentucky Clematis
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janielouy
Oct 5, 2016 4:46 PM CST
My son is leaving for vacation this Friday to Panama City, FLA. I think they may not be in danger but I think it will be a wet vacation there. You never know.
Stay safe, all of you east coast folks.
Name: daphne
san diego county, ca (Zone 10a)
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shizen
Oct 5, 2016 6:45 PM CST
thank you john, this is their first year in jacksonville; after having lived all their lives in california. they don't know how to prepare for a hurricane....think they'll learn fast! i will talk to her tonight and suggest they put together an earthquake emergency. it's the only kind, i think, they might understand at this point.

Region: California Cat Lover Irises Enjoys or suffers hot summers Dog Lover
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iciris
Oct 5, 2016 6:57 PM CST
Stay safe everyone. Group hug and prayers are being sent your way.
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 6, 2016 4:32 AM CST
Matthew looks to be strengthening. This is from the NHC;

" The satellite presentation of Matthew has improved markedly
overnight with eye reappearing and warming within the past couple
of hours. The eye is also embedded within a very symmetric
central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70c. An Air
Force reconnaissance hurricane hunter that just flew through the
center reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 132 kt, SFMR
winds around 103 kt, and a pressure of 944 mb, which is
down about 18 mb from last evening. Using a blend of the
flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity is set at
110 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
strengthening today and Matthew is expected to become an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane while it moves over the northwestern
Bahamas and approaches the East Coast of Florida. After 24 hours,
land interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the
period increasing shear should cause a more rapid decrease in
winds. The NHC forecast is above the most of guidance during the
first 24 hours due to the recent increase in organization, but is
close to the consensus thereafter.
Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Matthew is moving
northwestward or 320/10 kt. Matthew is expected to move around
the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to
gradually retreat eastward during the next day or two. This
pattern should steer Matthew northwestward over the northwestern
Bahamas today, then north-northwestward very near the East Coast
of Florida late today through Friday night. The models are tightly
clustered through 48 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus
of the GFS and ECMWF models through that time. After 48 hours, the
hurricane should turn northeastward as a broad trough approaches
the Great Lakes region. The trough is expected to pass north of
Matthew in about 72 hours, which is expected to cause the cyclone to
turn eastward, then southeastward late in the forecast period.
There is still significant spread in the long-range guidance so
there is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track
prediction.
Key messages:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the East
Coast of Florida tonight.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida and
Georgia. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in northeast
Georgia and South Carolina.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern
North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center
of Matthew remains offshore.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia."

Looks like it will be a Cat 4 storm while along the coast of Florida. This is a link that shows the size and strength of the wind field. For those in the southeast coast, keep an eye on this;

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurrica...


Here's the bottom line. Have an exit plan. When they say leave, just leave. Stay safe.

Blessings
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 6, 2016 4:39 AM CST
How to prepare for a storm;

http://wsvn.com/news/be-ready-how-to-prepare-for-a-storm/

Stay safe.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt
Name: Leslie
Durham, NC (Zone 8a)
Region: North Carolina Irises Cat Lover Garden Photography Enjoys or suffers hot summers Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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Lestv
Oct 6, 2016 9:22 AM CST
All of you with family heading to Florida - the flights will be cancelled. There is already mandatory evacuation to at least 100 miles inland. A Category 4 hurricane moving up the coast line will have tropical storm force winds that spread over 100 miles inland. And 145 winds at the coast and a ways inland. Even if it weakens some as it moves up the coast, there are very few people that are going to find a big difference in the Cat 3 vs Cat 4 winds when they are howling over you. Since it stays along the coast it will also have warm water feeding it so it will not fall apart, and Florida has very flat terrain that won't slow it down or tear it up like mountainous terrain.

Expect a lot of damage. It will be running along a very populous stretch of Florida, and at a much greater strength than they have experienced in quite a while. I have seen personally what a Cat 3 can do to long stretches of beach houses. And to houses and trees 100 miles inland. A Cat 4 is an absolute nightmare in my mind. They talk now of it curving back around and coming back toward the coast later. Talk about nature being cruel!
My road calls me, lures me west, east, south & north; most roads lead men homewards, my road leads me forth. - John Masefield
Name: Bonnie Sojourner
Harris Brake Lake, Arkansas (Zone 7a)
Magnolia zone
Region: United States of America Region: Arkansas Master Gardener: Arkansas Irises Bulbs Seed Starter
Gardens in Buckets Garden Art Plant and/or Seed Trader Moon Gardener Garden Ideas: Master Level Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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grannysgarden
Oct 6, 2016 10:04 AM CST
A lot of airlines are waiving change fees for those who want to change, cancel or postpone a flight into the area. I feel for the folks who are just sitting ducks with no way to avoid the storm.
I love my garden.... and Jesus, and coffee, and naps.......

Region: California
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UndertheSun
Oct 6, 2016 10:33 AM CST
That is just scary! Stay safe Florida!

My heart goes out to the people in Haiti and Cuba.
Name: Jan Wax
Mendocino County, N. CA (Zone 9a)
I'm a studio potter.
Hummingbirder Dog Lover Irises Region: California Organic Gardener Dahlias
Garden Art Cat Lover Vegetable Grower Birds Celebrating Gardening: 2015
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janwax
Oct 6, 2016 11:04 AM CST
Fingers crossed for all in the path of Hurricane Matthew. Anyone else doubting global warming?
Iris is the goddess of the rainbow.
Name: John
Kansas City,MO (Zone 6a)
Region: Missouri Composter Enjoys or suffers cold winters Plays in the sandbox
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yadah_tyger
Oct 6, 2016 11:50 AM CST
The latest discussions from the NHC.

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,
and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data
from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the
hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened. The initial
intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data
and an eyewall dropsonde.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
intensification today while Matthew approaches the East Coast of
Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some
weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a
more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above
most of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent
intensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus
thereafter.
Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or
325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew
is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36
hours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing
the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward
while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By
the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast
to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn
southward.
Key messages:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the East Coast of Florida
tonight.
2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of Mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.
3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.
4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the Hurricane Watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.
Forecast positions and Max winds
Init 06/1500z 25.1n 77.8w 120 kt 140 mph
12h 07/0000z 26.4n 79.0w 125 kt 145 mph
24h 07/1200z 28.3n 80.4w 125 kt 145 mph
36h 08/0000z 30.2n 81.1w 115 kt 130 mph
48h 08/1200z 31.7n 80.0w 95 kt 110 mph
72h 09/1200z 32.5n 76.5w 75 kt 85 mph
96h 10/1200z 30.5n 75.0w 50 kt 60 mph
120h 11/1200z 28.5n 76.0w 40 kt 45 mph
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' Theodore Roosevelt

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