A calm day here in Lehigh Acres so far. Nice sea breeze, but pretty sunny with no overcast. Thank the Lord above for nice oak trees.

Charlene

Today's update from Crown Weather service


The GFS ensemble model forecasts that this disturbance will track into the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and then across Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of Hispaniola Sunday night into Monday. The GFS ensemble guidance then forecasts this system to track west-northwestward across the southern Bahamas during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and then into the Florida Straits next Thursday before turning northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Friday into next Saturday. Ultimately, the GFS ensemble guidance forecasts this disturbance to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle right around Monday, August 29.

The European model ensemble guidance forecasts a track that also takes this system across the northeastern part of the Caribbean this weekend and across Puerto Rico around Monday. The European ensemble guidance then is very close to its operational counterpart in forecasting this system to track across the Bahamas during the middle part of next week. At the 10 day mark, the ensemble guidance is different than the operational guidance in that the ensembles are forecasting this system to be located just east of Cape Canaveral, Florida while the operational guidance is forecasting landfall very near Savannah, Georgia.

It is both notable and worrisome that the model guidance are very consistent in their forecasts of a landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and coasts of North and South Carolina. I do want to caution you though that these model guidance forecasts could turn out to be wrong. Satellite imagery this morning showed plenty of dry air that is capping off any real convection and the robust development is not forecast for at least another 4 to 5 days and the models should not be trusted with their intensity forecasts that far out

So we wait & watch. And so it goes during 'cane season. Just another day in paradise.

Exactly.

Now there's another has come off the coast of Africa. We'll have that to watch also.

Hetty, that guy from Crown weather is pretty darn good! Can you give a link?

Sure.
http://www.crownweather.com/?p...

DH just put up the mounts for our shutters this morning. He must know something I don't

Thanks Hetty. Bookmarked it.
Yup, maybe DH is just thinking it's worth it to get some of it done so you don't have to jump out your *** when the time comes. It isn't like we're having a dead season here this year. I hate when they all get lined up like bowling balls all across the ocean all the way to Africa & we have to wonder if they're going to get us or not & we have to watch 3 & 4 & sometimes more all at one time. Bout the time you wipe your brow from one, you have to hold your breath for the next one.

Well, we all remember 2004 - Charley followed by Frances, Ivan and Jeanne (and didn't Jeanne come twice?). It's when we officially became the Plywood State I think

Invest 97L now at a 80% chance of becoming a Tropical system by tomorrow evening. Let's watch this baby closely..... It will become Irene, if it develops. If and when it does, I hope her path will not follow the PREVIOUS Irene:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...)

Amen to that Hetty. You got the last Irene & then she crossed over the state & got the east coast. That was the one where our local TV channels told us there was no chance of her getting us. She went north of our lat. quite a bit & they said we were all clear so we went to bed & then we woke up - SURPRISE!!!! -- with Irene ON us. She had dropped back down & headed across the state.
I feel much better about hurricane season now that we are up here In LC but we still have a house down there on the coast that we have to be concerned with. Will be glad when that's not the case.

I'll be filling the generator tank up this week and finding all clamps for the hurricane shutters. Better start stocking up on my hurricane supplies too.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44...

Does this tell you anything? They are looking at Thursday evening/Friday morning for it to reach Florida (if it comes to Florida)

Might as well paint a huge bullseye over Fl.

Only thing that gives me hope is that they are so often wrong that if they say it's going to hit Fl. it's more than possible it'll hit anywhere BUT Fl.

It's the ones they say aren't going to get us that i chew my lip over.

I was at Costco just now where it was very busy. The guy at the checkout told me 'oh it's because of that Hurricane (?what hurricane...?it's still a TS) and we have had to restock our water four times today already.'
Panicmongering seems to be in full force.

The 5 pm update.

I will never understand why people don't have their supplies bought & ready when the season begins. And what ever happened to saving milk jugs & washing them out & when the time comes, filling them with water to drink --- I'll never know! It won't kill you to drink tap water for a few days.
Remember to turn your fridge & freezer settings down to max. cold at LEAST 48 hrs. in advance of the storm so the fridge has time to get to that temperature before you lose power. I put a post it note on the door of the fridge to remind me to adjust the settings to their normal position when the danger has past.