From aviation source:

Florence is in the South Western Atlantic and currently is a Category 4 Hurricane with winds 130kts.
Current location is approximately 400 miles to the south of BDA and 900 miles east of North Carolina with a west/ northwest movement.
With the current movement and speed it will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina late Thursday or Early Friday

That's ok Ken, I know how easily one can get them mixed up. I didn't recall Frederic & that's why I was looking it up. I thought something would jog my memory. The Gulf states (I know FL is one but we don't count LOL!) have had their share of devastating hurricanes. Boy, you guys had some monsters over the years!
This may sound odd but I'm sure Ken or anyone who did/does live in hurricane territory can relate. We (on the east coast of FL) always breathed a sigh of relief when we found whatever 'cane was not coming our way but was going in the Gulf. We were happy it wasn't going to hit us but anxious & worried about our fellow humans in the Gulf states. I'm sure it was the other way around for you guys Ken.


Alice, I know just what you mean about them hitting at night. It always sounds so much more scary at night when you can't see anything. How many times have they been predicted to make landfall in the daylight only to slow down & creep along until it ends up they make landfall after dark? More often than not!

The bad thing for us is that my husband was in chemotherapy during 2 of the hurricanes in 2004. We were home for Charley because hubs had chemo that day. We slept on the floor of our master closet that night. I stupidly got up and opened the garage door and heard the clangs of hell as the doors flexed during the storm. Closed it really quick, too! For the last one, we left town and went to Tampa. Stayed at the big Marriott Hotel, and the next morning we had 3" of rain on our floor because the hurricane followed us. We were in the only hotel in the area that had electricity. They had movies playing in 4 conference rooms for kids. They required wristbands for customers so that we could eat first, because people from every other hotel in the area came there for breakfast. I'll never forget that!

My husband is still alive and healthy and happy so sometimes it doesn't matter what happens during hurricanes. But most of the time it's nasty!

That had to be an especially stressful time for you guys Arlene. Whew!!
I am so glad your dh beat it!!!!

The way I look at it, Ann, is that if all I have to worry about is a storm, we're doing just fine! When we got home after Irma, I couldn't believe the damage that lady did on the east coast when she was on the west coast. After all the time we have been here, 18 yr, I've gotten a lot of respect for the storms, but .... but I still don't want them here. I've worked big time on my lemon tree. Irma basically destroyed it. I trimmed it twice and fertilized and it came back. The oaks were so sad and the bromiliads were shocked by the the amount of sun they got and there was nothing I could do. They got sunburned for the first time. Now, they have recovered.

Hurricanes suck. It doesn't matter if they hit here or somewhere else. They suck! But I'm not moving!!!!

I get it Arlene.

I appear to be moving from the fryng pan into the fire.

For those of us who have experienced hurricanes first-hand, we are all family. We truly understand the devastation and loss of lives that directly affected us, our neighbors, and our state. I know that those tens of millions, who see these hurricanes coming ashore via TV, think that they really have a grasp of the carnage that hurricanes bring. They don't. They can't. I have been though so many of these. I've seen the worse of the worse, from Camille to Katrina. I never ran from one, not a single time. Looking back on my stupidity, I probably could/should be one of those "statistics". It wasn't my time. It's that simple.

Boy you said it Ken. We've never run from one either but looking back on our stupidity...... When we're young, we think we're invincible. As we age, we begin to get smart.

I wish they would emphasize more that while we have great technology these days for predicting where they will strike, that these suckers can & do make unpredictable moves. Take the track of Elena that Ken was talking about. Look at this screwball track!

And read this:

After passing north of Havana, Cuba, Elena emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. At 12:00 UTC on August 29, Elena intensified into a Category 1 hurricane.[3] Analysis of steering currents through the morning of August 30 suggested that Elena would continue on its northwestward track, striking the area between New Orleans, Louisiana, and Biloxi, Mississippi within 30 hours.[4] Unexpectedly, a mid-to-upper-level trough of low pressure diving in from the northwest created a weakness in the easterly currents, allowing Elena to recurve and slow drastically in forward speed.[2][5] Roughly 24 hours after attaining hurricane intensity, the storm abruptly turned east in response to the trough.[2] Having defied initial forecasts, Hurricane Elena drifted on its new course toward the coast of northwest Florida. Forecasters now called for the trough to direct the hurricane across the Florida Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. However, the relatively weak trough moved rapidly, and instead of fully engaging Elena, its axis passed over the storm's center. Further, post-storm analysis of water vapor imagery suggested that the hurricane split the trough into two distinct segments.

And THEN it backtracked & ended up making landfall near Bilouxi. Go figure!!!!

And like Arlene, they went to the west coast & the dang thing followed them there!

I remember 1 (don't recall which one at the moment) where when we lived in Hobe Sound, an hour south of Ken there, & the 'cane had finally made it into the Gulf & then even went north & was roughly even with Tampa. The news channels called the all clear for us. It was well north of our latitude AND in the Gulf on the other side of the state. We'd been watching it for days & days. It had earlier been predicted to hit the east coast. We'd made 1/2 our preparations before it changed course. We were exhausted & it was around 11pm when they gave us the all clear. We fell into bed only to be awakened around 3am with the wind howling & rain lashing & well, here she was!!!! That 'cane had backtracked south, sped up & even went south of our latitude & then cut across the state in a NE direction & hit us!!!! Crazy!

We always run, primarily because the thought of living with out AC is painful, not to mention the bugs and snakes. Personally, I could care less about possessions, the only thing that matters is that the family is safe. Neighbors that lived on the street behind us that stayed for Matthew (which was only a Cat 1 when it hit here) were shocked by how bad it was. We have it down to where we only bring one small box of important papers, all of our photos have now been scanned into the lap tops.

I'll be moving plants to more sheltered locations today. We'll be getting some mighty winds and heavy rain, probably for days, after this one hits.

🙏🙏🙏🙏 for all in harms way. Stay safe

https://arstechnica.com/scienc...

And Rj's post illustrates the point perfectly as to how the track can change in a few hours time. I was just reading a USA Today article about all the people in NC who had decided to defy the evacuation orders & their reasons for doing so. Most said they did fine through Matthew & Florence was going to come in north of them so they were staying.
It's not written in stone folks!

I couldn't believe one guy said:
"I have a fortress of a home," he said. "I feel very comfortable. I made it through hurricane Mathew very effectively. I think being on the south side of the storm, we'll be okay."

He said a tornado came within 500 yards of his house during Matthew and took out 700 trees including a massive live oak near his house.

"So many of the trees that could have been uprooted have already been uprooted," he said.



Yah, ok, it's all about the trees right?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
It ISN'T!!!!!!!!

The tracking models seem to change every day, often drastically. The "experts" really don't know what this hurricane will do Friday-Sunday. Some things are for certain. There will be bad winds, storm surge, heavy rains, and massive flooding wherever she comes ashore and probably 100's of miles in all directions. And there will be massive power outages, and thus no running water, for days if not weeks. That's just the "baggage" that these Cat. 3-5 hurricanes bring.

Ann, as you well know, it really isn't so much the winds, it's the water. Houses can be built to withstand substantial wind (my house in Pascagoula, Mississippi was built to withstand 200 mph winds). Practically nothing stands up to even a 10' of storm surge and then there is the flooding from so much rain in such a short time.

I will refer to two of the more recent hurricanes, Katrina in Mississippi and Louisiana, and Harvey that hit Texas. Katrina, with her massive size, prolonged time over the Gulf, and huge storm surge (my home in Pascagoula had a storm surge over 25'!). Thousands of square miles of homes, highways, bridges, and businesses were completely destroyed, from Mobile, Alabama to New Orleans. Unless a structure was on pilings or was reinforced concrete, it simply disappeared. This was widespread devastation that had never been seen before. It was the most costly hurricane in history. Houston on the other hand, and surrounding areas, didn't really have much of a storm surge, or high winds, but Harvey "sat" on the same area for days, flooding thousands of square miles. Again, nothing of this magnitude had ever been seen before.

Florence could end up being a combination of these two previous hurricanes, and that's scary to even consider.

Ken. The experts keep warning people & the data backs up the warnings that water is a far worse killer & destroyer than wind. Why residents keep ignoring that fact is a mystery to me.

I can assure you, Ann, that statement is 100% true. There have been books written by people with first-hand experiences of being caught in flooding, and even worse, storm surge. If one doesn't believe the "experts" or the data, just read one of those books. Your hair will stand up on your neck and you will literally shiver, just reading about these experiences. Watching a hurricane on TV is basically a joke and greatly minimizes the actual ordeal. The Weather Channel folks are not going to risk their lives, not for one moment.

I also think it's inconsiderate to put our rescue workers at risk because they're too stubborn to evacuate Stay safe all

Legalily said:I also think it's inconsiderate to put our rescue workers at risk because they're too stubborn to evacuate Stay safe all

Excellent point Ginny.