This post is going to be a bit long and then I will start a new thread for pod and pollen parents. I am not attempting to change anyone's opinion. I use as a basic starting point that when someone makes observations in their growing conditions that their observations are correct. However, the biological causes or reasons behind those observations may not be the ones assumed.
GDJCB said: They both were right and the end result was the same, one relied on experience and sight to see what was there, the other, pedigree and stats to tell them.
In my opinion, people with long and deep experience can look at something and see what is there; those without such experience need to objectively measure what they see to have the same amount of information with a similar level of confidence. There are, however, some possible catch-22s in breeding - in effect, sometimes what one sees is not what one gets.
One possible example of the complications of hybridizing.
A hybridizer has a certain set of goals and has found five plants that fulfill the requirements. One of those requirements is that the plant has at least 25 buds per scape. All five plants have 25 buds per scape and all equally fulfill the other requirements. The hybridizer can only afford to purchase one of the plants. If the hybridizer relies only on the visible characteristics of the plants then the choice of which plant to use as a parent is effectively random. The hybridizer can only use the visible characteristics (the phenotypes) to estimate the breeding values (how well the plants are at passing on their characteristics to their seedlings) of the five plants. However, if the pedigrees of the plants are available and if information is available about the characteristics of the parents then the hybridizer may have more information to help make the choice.
Pod Parent A (32 buds) X Pollen Parent B (18 buds) -> Potential Breeding Plant 1 (25 buds)
Pod Parent C (25 buds) X Pollen Parent D (25 buds) -> Potential Breeding Plant 2 (25 buds)
Pod Parent E (10 buds) X Pollen Parent F (40 buds) -> Potential Breeding Plant 3 (25 buds)
Pod Parent G (35 buds) X Pollen Parent F (30 buds) -> Potential Breeding Plant 4 (25 buds)
Pod Parent H (15 buds) X Pollen Parent J (20 buds) -> Potential Breeding Plant 5 (25 buds)
With the added information about the characteristics of the parents, when the pedigrees are available and their stats are available there is more information that can be used to help make a decision.
Breeding Plant 1 has the expected number of buds that we would predict from a quantitative characteristic with no dominance, that is (32 +18)/2 = 25 buds.
Breeding Plant 2 has the expected number of buds that we would predict from a quantitative characteristic with no dominance, that is (25 +25)/2 = 25 buds. We would expect that the seedlings produced by this plant would be less varied in bud count than those produced by plant 1.
Breeding Plant 3 has the expected number of buds that we would predict from a quantitative characteristic with no dominance, that is (10 +40)/2 = 25 buds. We would expect that the seedlings produced by this plant would be more varied in bud count than those produced by plant 1.
Breeding Plant 4 has less than the expected number of buds that we would predict from a quantitative characteristic with no dominance, that is (35 +30)/2 = 32.5 versus 25 buds.
Breeding Plant 5 has more than the expected number of buds that we would predict from a quantitative characteristic with no dominance, that is (15 +20)/2 =17.5 versus 25 buds.
When we use a plant's visible characteristics (its phenotype) as the basis for choosing whether it will be used as a parent we are relying on the strength of the relationship between a plant's genotype and its visible characteristics. But those relationships (called heritability) can vary from zero to one. When it is zero the visible characteristics cannot tell us anything about its genotype. When it is one then the physical characteristics are a perfect measure of its genotype.
Returning to the example above. A plant with 25 buds may have a genotype for 25 buds, for more than 25 buds or for less than 25 buds. We cannot know what its genotype is for certain until we have made crosses and seen what bud counts its seedlings have (on average). That is called a progeny test. Nowadays, because of the possibility of using artificial insemination, progeny testing is done extensively in the beef and dairy cattle industry.
Many daylily hybridizers use progeny testing, even though they may not identify it as a method they use. When they choose a plant to use as a parent they often cross it with many other daylilies. If it does not produce at least a few seedlings of sufficient quality it is may not be used again as a parent - that is effectively progeny testing to choose 'good' parents.