The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Dec 6 | Dec 18 | Dec 25 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 11 | Jan 16 | Jan 24 | Feb 1 |
| First 20° | Nov 25 | Dec 1 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 6 | Jan 12 | Jan 20 |
| First 24° | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 21 | Jan 1 |
| First 28° | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 29 | Dec 6 |
| First 32° | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 |
| First 36° | Oct 14 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? Frost can form on plants even when the air temperature is above 32°. This happens because of radiative cooling. On clear nights, surfaces like leaves and the ground radiate their heat to the cold night sky. As dew forms on these surfaces, those water droplets continue losing heat and can reach freezing even when the surrounding air is a few degrees warmer. This is why frost is more common on clear, calm nights (clouds act as insulation against this heat loss) and why low-lying areas frost first, since the coldest air settles near the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, cloud cover, nearby structures, trees, and terrain. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on March 30, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 9 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants. If conditions change and a surprise frost does threaten, there's always things you can do to protect plants from frost.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Feb 20 | Feb 7 | Feb 1 | Jan 28 | Jan 23 | Jan 16 | Jan 11 | Jan 3 | Dec 25 |
| Last 20° | Mar 6 | Feb 27 | Feb 20 | Feb 11 | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 18 | Jan 8 |
| Last 24° | Mar 21 | Mar 15 | Mar 9 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 |
| Last 28° | Apr 3 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 2 | Feb 23 |
| Last 32° | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 |
| Last 36° | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 |
Now that you know your frost dates, use our Garden Planting Calendar for Bishopville, SC to know when to sow and transplant your various vegetable plants!
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Photography by Garden.org member TBGDN.
The Victory Seed Company is family owned and operated, working to help fellow gardeners succeed by selling popular vegetable, herb and flower seeds. Since the 1990s they have been heavily involved with the preservation of rare, open-pollinated, heirloom seeds. Visit them at www.VictorySeeds.com.