The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Oct 28 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Dec 2 |
| First 20° | Oct 17 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 | Nov 20 |
| First 24° | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 |
| First 28° | Sep 23 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 22 |
| First 32° | Sep 12 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 |
| First 36° | Sep 2 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 30 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? Frost can form on plants even when the air temperature is above 32°. This happens because of radiative cooling. On clear nights, surfaces like leaves and the ground radiate their heat to the cold night sky. As dew forms on these surfaces, those water droplets continue losing heat and can reach freezing even when the surrounding air is a few degrees warmer. This is why frost is more common on clear, calm nights (clouds act as insulation against this heat loss) and why low-lying areas frost first, since the coldest air settles near the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, cloud cover, nearby structures, trees, and terrain. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 20, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 3 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants. If conditions change and a surprise frost does threaten, there's always things you can do to protect plants from frost.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Mar 21 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 7 | Mar 4 | Mar 2 | Feb 27 | Feb 23 | Feb 18 |
| Last 20° | Apr 6 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 |
| Last 24° | Apr 29 | Apr 21 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 | Mar 16 |
| Last 28° | May 15 | May 8 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 8 |
| Last 32° | Jun 4 | May 29 | May 22 | May 17 | May 15 | May 11 | May 8 | May 3 | Apr 29 |
| Last 36° | Jun 21 | Jun 15 | Jun 10 | Jun 7 | Jun 3 | May 30 | May 26 | May 20 | May 15 |
Now that you know your frost dates, use our Garden Planting Calendar for Cambridge, ID to know when to sow and transplant your various vegetable plants!
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Photography by Garden.org member TBGDN.
The Victory Seed Company is family owned and operated, working to help fellow gardeners succeed by selling popular vegetable, herb and flower seeds. Since the 1990s they have been heavily involved with the preservation of rare, open-pollinated, heirloom seeds. Visit them at www.VictorySeeds.com.