The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Nov 2 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 7 |
| First 20° | Oct 23 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 21 | Nov 27 |
| First 24° | Oct 12 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 |
| First 28° | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 30 |
| First 32° | Sep 16 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 |
| First 36° | Sep 4 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? Frost can form on plants even when the air temperature is above 32°. This happens because of radiative cooling. On clear nights, surfaces like leaves and the ground radiate their heat to the cold night sky. As dew forms on these surfaces, those water droplets continue losing heat and can reach freezing even when the surrounding air is a few degrees warmer. This is why frost is more common on clear, calm nights (clouds act as insulation against this heat loss) and why low-lying areas frost first, since the coldest air settles near the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, cloud cover, nearby structures, trees, and terrain. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 17, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 1 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants. If conditions change and a surprise frost does threaten, there's always things you can do to protect plants from frost.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 5 | Mar 2 | Feb 28 | Feb 25 | Feb 20 | Feb 13 |
| Last 20° | Apr 3 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 |
| Last 24° | Apr 26 | Apr 17 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 |
| Last 28° | May 8 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 4 |
| Last 32° | Jun 1 | May 23 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 |
| Last 36° | Jun 21 | Jun 14 | Jun 9 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 27 | May 22 | May 17 | May 11 |
Now that you know your frost dates, use our Garden Planting Calendar for Council, ID to know when to sow and transplant your various vegetable plants!
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Photography by Garden.org member TBGDN.
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