The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Oct 14 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 22 |
| First 20° | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 6 |
| First 24° | Sep 16 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 19 |
| First 28° | Sep 3 | Sep 7 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 |
| First 32° | Aug 23 | Aug 28 | Sep 1 | Sep 3 | Sep 5 | Sep 8 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 21 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? Frost can form on plants even when the air temperature is above 32°. This happens because of radiative cooling. On clear nights, surfaces like leaves and the ground radiate their heat to the cold night sky. As dew forms on these surfaces, those water droplets continue losing heat and can reach freezing even when the surrounding air is a few degrees warmer. This is why frost is more common on clear, calm nights (clouds act as insulation against this heat loss) and why low-lying areas frost first, since the coldest air settles near the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, cloud cover, nearby structures, trees, and terrain. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by . In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on , so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants. If conditions change and a surprise frost does threaten, there's always things you can do to protect plants from frost.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Apr 13 | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 |
| Last 20° | May 3 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 |
| Last 24° | May 18 | May 13 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 18 |
| Last 28° | Jun 14 | Jun 5 | May 31 | May 26 | May 22 | May 19 | May 15 | May 11 | May 7 |
| Last 32° | Jul 4 | Jun 28 | Jun 24 | Jun 20 | Jun 17 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 4 | May 30 |
Now that you know your frost dates, use our Garden Planting Calendar for Idaho City, ID to know when to sow and transplant your various vegetable plants!
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Photography by Garden.org member TBGDN.
The Victory Seed Company is family owned and operated, working to help fellow gardeners succeed by selling popular vegetable, herb and flower seeds. Since the 1990s they have been heavily involved with the preservation of rare, open-pollinated, heirloom seeds. Visit them at www.VictorySeeds.com.