The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Nov 14 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 24 | Jan 4 |
| First 20° | Nov 5 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 15 |
| First 24° | Oct 24 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Dec 1 |
| First 28° | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 | Nov 19 |
| First 32° | Oct 5 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 5 |
| First 36° | Sep 25 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 25 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? Frost can form on plants even when the air temperature is above 32°. This happens because of radiative cooling. On clear nights, surfaces like leaves and the ground radiate their heat to the cold night sky. As dew forms on these surfaces, those water droplets continue losing heat and can reach freezing even when the surrounding air is a few degrees warmer. This is why frost is more common on clear, calm nights (clouds act as insulation against this heat loss) and why low-lying areas frost first, since the coldest air settles near the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, cloud cover, nearby structures, trees, and terrain. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 29. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 28, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 8 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants. If conditions change and a surprise frost does threaten, there's always things you can do to protect plants from frost.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Feb 25 | Feb 18 | Feb 13 | Feb 7 | Feb 2 | Jan 25 | Jan 15 | Jan 5 | Dec 25 |
| Last 20° | Mar 9 | Mar 2 | Feb 27 | Feb 23 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 9 | Feb 2 | Jan 20 |
| Last 24° | Apr 4 | Mar 27 | Mar 19 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Mar 1 | Feb 24 | Feb 16 |
| Last 28° | Apr 25 | Apr 18 | Apr 12 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 | Mar 18 | Mar 10 |
| Last 32° | May 9 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 4 |
| Last 36° | May 29 | May 19 | May 14 | May 10 | May 8 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 23 |
Now that you know your frost dates, use our Garden Planting Calendar for Boise, ID to know when to sow and transplant your various vegetable plants!
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Photography by Garden.org member TBGDN.
The Victory Seed Company is family owned and operated, working to help fellow gardeners succeed by selling popular vegetable, herb and flower seeds. Since the 1990s they have been heavily involved with the preservation of rare, open-pollinated, heirloom seeds. Visit them at www.VictorySeeds.com.